For the first time in the general election, Mitt Romney leads President Obama in an extensive aggregate of national polls regularly compiled by Real Clear Politics.
The Pew Research poll that earlier this week showed Romney with a 4-point lead was instrumental in pushing the poll average in Romney's favor. While the Pew poll is not disputed, it is only one snapshot of a complex race.
Other polls published around the same time show Romney with a smaller lead or still trailing Obama. Real Clear Politics has a well-respected running poll average, and it is this amalgamated metric that now shows Romney with an ever-so-slight lead for the first time: 0.8 percent, less than a single point ahead of the president.
However, public sentiment is not static. Just a week before the first presidential debate, which saw a supercharged Romney steamroll a stunned Obama, this same average showed Obama with a lead greater than 4 points..
Romney's post-debate bounce has turned into a takeoff, as his numbers continue to rise, with no signs of abating yet. Still, the first-and-only vice presidential debate is Thursday night, and it offers the Democrats the best opportunity to stop their slide in the polls.
For the most part, Romney's gains come from undecided voters swayed by his debate performance. Supporters of the president, by and large, have not switched allegiances or changed their minds, but they are less energized and less likely to actually head to the polls to vote, or to join a phone bank or canvass for support.
But if Joe Biden performs well in his debate against Paul Ryan tomorrow, he has a change to reenergize the Democratic base. However, if Ryan comes out the winner, it may be too late for the final two presidential debates to halt Romney's rally.
The election is less than four weeks away, and each side is trying to move the needle of public sentiment, hoping it points to them when the buzzer sounds on Nov. 6.
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