The Screen Actors Guild Awards have always been a good indicator of who the acting awards will go to at the Oscars. This year, however, only 14 out of 20 SAG nominees matched the corresponding Oscar categories. Still the actors who are currently frontrunners for their respective categories were nominated and should continue to get a huge boost from a SAG win.
The Best Actress category has been narrowed down to two actresses. Of the other three only one is nominated for the Oscar while two were snubbed for Oscar nominations.
Jessica Chastain- Jessica Chastain's nomination for "Zero Dark Thirty" marked her third nomination at the SAG awards. She was previously nominated for "The Help" in the best supporting actress race and won for the Best Ensemble for "The Help." Chastain has already won 18 precursor awards including the Golden Globe and the Broadcast Critics Choice award. She is currently the frontrunner for the award but if the controversy and boycott come to fruition over "Zero Dark Thirty," Chastain may lose the opportunity of being recognized by her peers.
Marion Cotillard-The nomination for "Rust and Bone" marks Cotillard's fourth nomination with the organization. She was previously nominated for Lead Actress in 2008 for "La Vie en Rose" and for Best Ensemble in 2010 and 2012 for "Nine" and "Midnight in Paris." Cotillard seemed like a strong contender with nominations at the Golden Globes, BAFTA and Critics' Choice. Additionally she won the Hollywood Film Award and was honored at the Gotham awards and Palm Springs Film Festival. However, with no Oscar nomination Cotillard seems like she will go home empty handed once again.
Jennifer Lawrence-Jennifer Lawrence received her second and third nomination this year for "Silver Linings Playbook." She was previously nominated for her work in "Winter's Bone." "Silver Linings Playbook" is currently one of the frontrunners at the SAG awards for Best Ensemble as it is nominated for four awards. Lawrence is currently a frontrunner along with Chastain having won 16 precursor awards, including a Golden Globe. She may take the lead over Chastain due to the films popularity. However, if Chastain and Lawrence split the vote, another actress could easily take the award changing the race completely.
Helen Mirren-Mirren received her 11th nomination for the organization having previously won twice for Best Actress in "The Queen" and for Best Actress in A TV Miniseries-Movie for "Losing Chase." Mirren's performance for "Hitchcock" has no opportunity of winning this award as she did not receive recognition from previous awards organizations. Additionally, while she received a BAFTA and a Golden Globe nomination she failed to obtain the Oscar nomination. Therefore Mirren's chances are none.
Naomi Watts-Naomi Watts' nomination for "The Impossible" marks her second SAG nomination. She was previously nominated in 2004 for "21 Grams." Watts' nomination is the wild card of the best actress race as many celebrities such as Angelina Jolie and Reese Witherspoon have endorsed it. Additionally, she has not won a single award and was not nominated for the Golden Globe and the Broadcast Critics Choice. The only thing against Watts' case is she did not get nominated for the BAFTA. The BAFTA's voters are mostly Academy members and no nomination means a possible loss at the Oscars. If Watts pulls off a surprise, she could easily go on to win the Oscar.
Predictions-The race comes down to Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence. However, Jessica Chastain has the momentum after the Globe win and Critics' Choice and is most likely to win.