Like most years, the Best Picture race has been narrowed down to a few films. The only main issue that remains to be seen is how many the Academy ultimately chooses to nominate as they can pick anywhere from five to 10 films.
The Locks
If the magic number is five, there is no doubt as to what the films will be. "Zero Dark Thirty" has garnered more critics precursor awards than any other film in the race and will among the top five. It has won 12 Best Picture accolades from such distinguished organizations as the New York Film Critics, the National Board of Review, and the Boston Online Film Critics.
"Argo" is second in best picture tallies with 11 victories. It has won more precursors than "Zero Dark Thirty" in the last month and is slated to be the Best Picture front-runner.
The remaining three films that are locks for the category are "Silver Linings Playbook," "Lincoln," "and Les Miserables." "Silver Linings Playbook" has picked up two Best Picture awards this season. The two other films have picked up tremendous buzz and a plethora of nominations from other awards organizations. "Lincoln" won Best Picture from the Dallas-Forth Worth Critics Awards.
Additionally, all of these films have earned Golden Globe, Critics Choice, and Producer's Guild of America nominations. Additionally, "Les Miserables," "Silver Linings Playbook," "Argo," and "Lincoln" are all nominated for the Screen Actors Guild's Best Ensemble award. Since the SAG award's inception in 1995 no film has ever won the Oscar for Best Picture without being nominated for this award.
The Remaining Contenders
The race depends on whether the Academy chooses to expand the category and by how much. The other five films nominated by the Producer's Guild include "Skyfall," "Moonrise Kingdom" "Beasts of the Southern Wild" "Django Unchained" and "Life of Pi." Since the Producer's guild makes up a major contingent of Oscar voters, it is likely that these films would be in the top 10 if the category expands that far.
"Life of Pi" is locked as the sixth film due to its tremendous buzz. The film picked up Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominations for Best Picture. It has also been awarded the Best Picture award from the Las Vegas Film Critics and has been nominated for the award by virtually every organization.
"Moonrise Kingdom" becomes the next pick if the category expands to seven as the film has won two precursors and was nominated for the Golden Globe and Critics Choice. The film was a best picture winner at the Satellites and Central Ohio Film Critics.
The remaining three Producer's Guild of America nominees all face an uphill climb toward nomination. "Beasts of the Southern Wild" is a critic darling that won the Sundance Film Festival and has built its buzz on that victory. The Academy has shown interest in nominating Sundance winners such as 2010's "Winter's Bone" and that boosts its chances at a nomination. "Django Unchained" also stands a chance thanks to the Best Picture nomination of Quentin Tarantino's last film "Inglorious Basterds." "Skyfall" is the biggest long shot of PGA nominees. The Academy has shown a willingness to nominate blockbusters, but with no certainty of ten slots, "Skyfalls" chances are diminished significantly. The fact that Academy Award winner Sam Mendes directed the film could elevate it in the eyes of the voters.
One film that could make a surprise appearance on the list is Michael Haneke's "Amour," which is widely considered the top contender for the Best Foreign Film Award. The Academy does not usually pick foreign films for its top category and that alone could make it miss out on a nod.
The other major film that could garner a nomination is Paul Thomas Anderson's "The Master." The film was ignored by the Producer's guild, but it is definitely slated to earn acting nominations and possibly awards. "The Master" was critically acclaimed, but it has faded heavily in the race and could be on the outside looking in.
The final major dark horse candidate is "The Impossible." Few people have seen the film, but many have endorsed it, including Angelina Jolie, who threw a special screening party to the Academy members to promote the film. Reese Witherspoon has also spoken out in favor of "The Impossible." It could potentially garner an 11th hour nomination.
Prediction: Last year, the Academy picked nine films in the category. They go with eight this year which include "Argo," "Les Miserables," "Lincoln," "Silver Linings Playbook" "Zero Dark Thirty" "Life of Pi" "Beasts of the Southern Wild" and "Moonrise Kingdom." The Academy has shown a soft spot for art films and for that reason "Beasts" and "Moonrise Kingdom" will be the final two films in the category.