Hurricane Sandy might have an interesting effect on our Electoral College predictions.
Pennsylvania is directly in Sandy's path, and the storm will crawl over the state for at least a full day.
Could Sandy suppress enough turnout in Pennsylvania to flip it to red?
It is possible, but the demographics say it's unlikely. Pennsylvania leans slightly Democratic right now. But the storm doesn't care about party affiliation; it will tear up your home and neighborhood either way.
So if anything, we're likely to see voter turnout down among both Republicans and Democrats. The Democrats might even get a small bounce out of Sandy, especially if the storm is very strong.
In Pennsylvania, Democratic voters are centered in the cities, with Republicans scattered through the rural areas between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.
If the storm hits hard, services will be back up in the cities first, simply because more people live there. If rural Republican areas are still struggling for normalcy in a week, I'd expect smaller Republican turnout.
As for the Electoral College, Sandy won't have much effect. While the majority of the states in her path are Democratic, no amount of rain will turn Massachusetts red.
However, if turnout is lower in a large potion of blue states on Election Day, Obama's showing in the popular vote will suffer.
Obama is already polling behind in the popular vote, but it could increase the likelihood of an Electoral College/popular vote split.
The most important swing states (Ohio, Colorado, Iowa and Nevada) aren't anywhere near the path of the storm, so the results in those states will likely be unaffected.
However, it is possible that a competent and decisive response to the storm from Obama could help public perception of him nationwide.
This is a unique and obvious opportunity for Obama to prove that government intervention can be necessary and desirable.
Will a swing voter in Akron be as easily able to dismiss the government's ability to manage healthcare if he sees FEMA trailers on the news sheltering people who lost their homes to an act of God?
We'll soon see.
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