Just when you thought the Electoral College was falling into place, North Carolina changes its mind.
Last week, a string of positive polls in North Carolina for Republican challenger Mitt Romney moved the state out of the tossup column and into Romney's.
But on Thursday, a Public Policy Polling survey provided the push to move it back into its usual place as a swing state.
While national polls continue to show Romney with a slight lead over President Obama, the swing states are beginning to drift to either side.
I expect we'll see North Carolina turn back to red fairly soon, as I think this good news for Obama is a blip in a tide of crimson results.
But for now, the state's 15 electoral votes are up for grabs again, and that drops Romney's total down below Obama's where they've been for much of the race.
Obama now has 201 electoral votes he can most likely count on come Election Day, while Romney has 191, with 146 still undecided.
That's plenty left to hand the election over to either candidate.
For now, Obama looks like a sure thing in Pennsylvania (and there are few scenarios where he loses there but still wins the election). He also seems poised to take Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada and Iowa.
That puts Obama just 11 electoral votes shy of winning the election outright.
That means Romney needs to take Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and Ohio, as well as either Colorado or New Hampshire.
The first three are doable for Romney, as he's polling ahead in Florida and North Carolina, and Virginia is more similar to North Carolina than any other state that's still in play.
Currently, Romney is polling slightly ahead in New Hampshire, and Colorado could go either way.
But Obama is holding on to a small but consistent lead in Ohio, which alone would put him over the top.
Both campaigns know how important Ohio is. They've poured $93 million worth of television ads into the state, and both Obama and Romney are crisscrossing the state this week holding rallies and visiting campaign workers.
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