Electoral College predictions are falling into place, and the latest swing state polls back up the most likely scenarios.
Both President Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney can see good news in this batch of polls.
First, two polls in the critical swing state of Ohio show Obama holding on to his ever-so-slight lead.
A SurveyUSA poll has the president up 3 points over Romney.
A Rasmussen poll also released today, though, shows the opponents tied.
Over the last two weeks, the Ohio polls have varied between a dead heat and a several-point-lead for Obama, averaging to about a 2-point margin in favor of the president.
In order to win the Electoral College without Ohio, either candidate will probably need to sweep the swing state package of Nevada, Colorado, Iowa and New Hampshire.
But that is looking more difficult for both campaigns.
Two polls give Obama the lead in Nevada. A Rasmussen poll and an ARG poll both put Obama 2 points up.
But two other polls show Romney leading in New Hampshire. Rasmussen and ARG both also show Romney leading by 2 points there.
If these trends hold through Election Day, Obama need only take Ohio to win. He could also take Virginia and one other state, either Colorado or Iowa.
But both Virginia and Colorado are definite tossups right now. Iowa leans slightly toward Obama.
Romney, however, could win Ohio and still lose, unless he picks up one more state, either Virginia, Colorado or Iowa.
So Ohio, while important to both candidates, is closer to a must-win for Romney.
So while the news in New Hampshire is good for him, the news in Ohio is far worse.
Still, he has been polling slightly better lately in Virginia than Obama.
Many predictions have him sweeping the South, with Virginia joining North Carolina as a traditionally red Southern state that voted for Obama in 2008 but flips back to the Republicans this year.
Both campaigns are fighting in Ohio with one hand, while trying to juggle every other swing state with the other.
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