In today's roundup of swing state polls, President Obama pulls ahead in several important states, including critical Ohio. But remember those "difficult paths" Romney has without Ohio? They're looking a little more feasible today.
First, a Suffolk University poll shows Obama and Romney tied at 47 percent support each. While this may look like a dead heat, remember that a CBS News poll had Obama up by 5 points at the same time this poll was taken, and that matches the trend we've seen lately in Ohio.
In addition, two polls in Pennsylvania have Obama way up. The Morning Call says Obama leads by 5 points, 50 percent to Romney's 45 percent. And a Gravis survey has Obama ahead by 3 points, even with the conservative bias "robo-calling" firms like Gravis often have.
Pennsylvania is close to a must-win for Obama, as he has few other places to make up its 20 electoral votes. I think it's likely the state will be called for him sometime this week.
Obama also leads in an ARG poll in Nevada, 49 percent to 47 percent, and ARG suffers from the same issues as Gravis.
But Romney ties Obama in a Rasmussen robo-poll in Iowa.
Rasmussen also puts Romney up by 4 points in Colorado. The state would be a great win for Romney, as Colorado and Virginia have been the closest states in the nation to a tie for weeks now.
And an ARG poll in New Hampshire has Romney up by 2 points. While the state has only 4 electoral votes, it plays an important role in several Electoral College scenarios. In a year when a tie in the Electoral College is possible, even 4 votes could decide the winner.
New Hampshire, Colorado, Iowa and Nevada form a 25-point coalition that Romney could take to secure the White House. Several scenarios put him 22 points shy of winning, so every one of those states is necessary in a map where Romney loses Ohio.
Romney could conceivably take Wisconsin or Michigan, but those larger states are much more likely to swing toward Obama in the end. Romney still has a fighting chance in these four states, and he'll need to make the most of it if he wants to hedge his bets against all the bad news he's been getting from Ohio lately.
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