The Best Original Screenplay is made up of four Best Picture nominees and one film that is only nominated for three major categories. Throughout the precursor awards one film has dominated the category and is likely to win the award very easily. Previous winners include "Django Unchained," "Midnight in Paris," "The King's Speech," and "The Hurt Locker."
"American Hustle" - Eric Warren Singer received his first nomination for an Academy Award while David O. Russell received his second screenwriting nomination and fifth overall mention for the Oscars. "American Hustle" was originally supposed to be a big player in this category especially after winning four critics circles early on. However, its buzz quickly faded when it lost the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice awards. Its chances of the winning the category were knocked down even more when it lost the Writers Guild of America this past weekend. The film could still win the accolade if the Academy decides to give "American Hustle" Best Picture.
"Blue Jasmine" - Woody Allen received his 24th nomination for the Oscars. The writer-director has already won four Academy Awards and last won in 2011 for his work on "Midnight in Paris." Throughout awards season "Blue Jasmine" was not on any pundit's radar for this award because of the fact that the lead actress Cate Blanchett was getting all the buzz. While the movie was nominated for the BAFTA and WGA, the fact that it is not a Best Picture nominee and the other four films in this category are, bodes badly for this movie. Expect Allen to go home empty-handed on Oscar night.
"Dallas Buyers Club" - Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack received their first Oscar nominations. "Dallas Buyers Club" was never believed to be a Best Picture or Best Original Screenplay contender. The film was not nominated for the BAFTA, Critics Choice or the Golden Globe. However, the guilds embraced the movie and so did the Academy. While the lead actors are sure to win in their categories, "Dallas Buyers Club's" screenplay is unlikely to win especially after a loss at the WGA.
"Her" - Spike Jonze received his first Best Screenplay nomination and fourth overall mention. "Her" has garnered critical acclaim especially for its screenplay. The film has already won 19 precursor awards including at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and WGA. While the movie is not nominated for the BAFTA, a win by the WGA has greater weight because Oscar voters also vote for the WGA. "Her" is undoubtedly the front-runner but could lose if the Academy is not feeling the movie.
"Nebraska" - Bob Nelson is up for his first Oscar nomination but is unlikely to win the award this year. "Nebraska" has been present throughout the precursor awards but has failed to win any major awards. The film lost the WGA, Golden Globe, and Critics Choice. While it is nominated for the BAFTA, the fact that the movie did not get nominated for Best Picture at those awards will mean a loss. Even though the film has a Best Picture nod at the Oscars, the box office failure and the fact that it has no buzz will not help the film win.
Predictions: "Her" will triumph in this category especially after its WGA win. However, if the Academy wants to give the Best Picture award to "American Hustle," expect Russell and Singer to take the prize home.