The Directors Guild of America has named Alfonso Cuaron the Best Director of the year.
The DGA award is significant because a number of voters at the DGA are also Oscar voters and as a result they influence the race. Most of the time, the director who wins this award ends up winning the Oscar.
For the past six years, with exception of one, the DGA has matched the Oscars. The winners have included Tom Hooper for "The King's Speech," Michel Hazanavicius for "The Artist," Kathryn Bigelow for "The Hurt Locker," Danny Boyle for "Slumdog Millionaire," and Joel and Ethan Coen for "No Country for Old Men." The lone exception was last year when Ben Affleck won for "Argo" at the DGA but did not win the Oscar. However, Affleck was not nominated for the Academy Awards and as a result Ang Lee won for "Life of Pi."
This year the award is even more significant because with Cuaron's victory, "Gravity" has now become the front-runner to win the Oscar. The reason for this is because the film has now won two out of the four guilds. The film won the Producers Guild and now the DGA. Additionally, since the race is tight, any win is significant for this year's Oscar race.
However, it is important to note that "Gravity" is not nominated for Best Screenplay. In the past 10 years, there has not been a Best Picture winner that has not been nominated for Best Writing. The lack of a writing nomination will hurt "Gravity." "Gravity" also missed out on a SAG Best Ensemble nomination. Since first SAG started its awards every film that has won Best Picture has been nominated for Best Ensemble.
If this continues to be the case, "American Hustle" will have the advantage over the film. "American Hustle" won the SAG and will most likely win the Writers Guild of America for Best Original Screenplay. As a result, "Gravity" and "American Hustle" will be tied for two guild awards. However, "American Hustle's" writing award will make the film more relevant.
In the case of "12 Years a Slave," the film has lost steam and will most likely lose the Oscar. The movie has only one guild award and will have no chance at the WGA because it is not nominated. No film in the past six years has won the Academy Award and only won one guild. Additionally, the film only has nine nominations while "American Hustle" and "Gravity" are nominated for 10 awards.
From tonight's win it is evident that this year the Oscar for Best Director and Best Picture will likely be split for the second time in a row.