With the Producers Guild of America having made history with a tie, the Academy Awards race has become one of the most unpredictable in years.
The PGA award for Best Picture was given to "Gravity" and "12 Years a Slave." Both films had been garnering buzz for Best Picture but had seemed to lose steam on Saturday Jan. 18 when the Screen Actors Guild gave its top award to "American Hustle."
The PGA is significant because, like the Academy, the PGA uses a preferential ballot to determine the winner. Additionally, the Producers Guild has 4,500 members and a number of the members are also Academy voters. The PGA is also an important predictor of the Oscars because for the past six years the PGA has picked the eventual Oscar winner.
The unprecedented tie has turned the race into a three-way game and now most pundits will turn to the Directors Guild to see which director is likely to win the Oscar.
"American Hustle" is currently in the lead because the SAG awards have 20 percent of the Oscar voters and many times the winner of the SAG Best Ensemble award has gone on to win the Best Picture award. For example, "Crash" defeated "Brokeback Mountain" in one of the most surprising Oscar races in the history of the Academy. While "Brokeback Mountain" had won the majority of the precursor awards, the film's gay subject matter seemed to dissuade Academy voters.
The PGA tie may also hurt "12 Years a Slave" and "Gravity." The fact that the Producers could not decide on a winner may signify that both films could end up canceling each other out when the Academy votes for the Best Picture. As a result, "American Hustle" could benefit.
Another reason why "American Hustle" could easily win: "Gravity" has no Best Original Screnplay nomination and no film in the past 10 years has won an Academy Award for Best Picture without being nominated for Best Screenplay.
Meanwhile, "12 Years a Slave" is at a disadvantage because of its dark subject matter. For the past three years the Academy has chosen lighter films over movies with heavier subjects. For example, "Argo" won over "Zero Dark Thirty"; "The Artist" won over "The Descendants"; and "The King's Speech" won over the "The Social Network."
Of course, this isn't always the case. The Academy has chosen darker films in the past including "The Hurt Locker," "No Country For Old Men" and "The Departed," but it all depends on the Academy's sentiment in a given year.
"American Hustle's" other advantage is the fact that the movie has made over $100 million at the box office. Meanwhile, "12 Years a Slave" has only made $40 million. The popularity of "American Hustle" is important because a number of Best Picture winners have grossed over $100 million. Those films include "The Departed," "Slumdog Millionaire," "The King's Speech," and "Argo."
While these are all good reasons for "American Hustle" to win the Oscar, it is still too close to call and the Writers Guild of America, the DGA and the British Academy Awards can continue to shift the race.