The biggest problem facing the idea of widespread Ultra-HD, or 4K, video is streaming. Google may now have fixed that problem, as YouTube plans on demonstrating a 4K video streaming codec that halves the amount of bandwidth used.
4K and Streaming
When Blu-Ray and HD DVD formats were fighting over the first embodiment of high definition video, there really wasn't a question of whether HD would replace DVDs. That was obvious. HD looked nicer and HDTVs would eventually become affordable to most people. The question was which disk format would win enough partners and which one would become the 21st century's Betamax.
But now with 4K video, TVs, and devices on the cusp of entering the mainstream, there's a new wrinkle fundamentally challenging the new UHD format: streaming video over the internet has become so commonplace that Netflix and YouTube basically take over downstream internet traffic every night after people come home from work and veg.
The adoption issue isn't simply about 4K screens becoming cheaper, and it's certainly not about finding a dominant physical medium. For 4K to become mainstream, people need to have the internet bandwidth to stream it.
4K-Worthy Bandwidth
The most obvious answer to that problem is that broadband internet, just like other technologies, continues to get better, faster, and cheaper.
It's true - broadband adoption continues to rise. This year, 70 percent of American homes had broadband access. But unlike smartphones, computers, and televisions, there's relatively little drive for improvements in broadband internet quality, speed, and cost, because your market access is based on your physical location, and cable and utility companies have staked out monopolies or duopolies in most places. For example, the New America Foundation's recent report "The Cost of Connectivity in 2013" found that the fastest, most affordable broadband connections are available where three or more ISPs compete, but only 9 percent of Americans live in places like that.
With UHD video streaming estimated to require about a 100Mbps connection, average U.S. internet speeds lagging behind IT powerhouses like Cambodia and Romania in 2013, and little structural pressure on ISPs to enhance speeds, how will 4K video ever make it?
Google to the Rescue
And not just for those who live in Google fiber towns - Google has found a possible work-around for the bandwidth issue.
According to GigaOm, Google-owned YouTube will demonstrate 4K video at the Consumer Electronics Show next week that uses a Google-developed codec called VP9, rather than the earlier- and more commonly-used H.265 codec.
So what?
VP9 is an open and royalty-free codec that cuts the amount of data needed for 4K video in half.
If you can't widen the highway, make the cars smaller. Google is basically saying VP9 will do that for stunning next-generation video (and, since VP9 isn't 4K-exclusive, it can cut down on buffering time for regular HD, too). On top of that, Google has been working with hardware manufacturers like Intel, ARM, Samsung, Sharp, and Toshiba to ensure support for UHD video encoded with the (free) VP9 codec (H.265 encoding has licensing fees attached).
In the age of the internet, is H.265 the new Betamax (or HD DVD)? Not really, at least according to Google, which is leaving the possibility of also using H.265 in 4K YouTube videos.
But next week, if YouTube proves VP9-based 4K video looks as nice as any bandwidth-hogging 4K video format, it might mean that we'll soon be watching 4K video at home. Or at least as soon as those $3000 4K TVs come down in price.