Tropical Storm Dorian is still churning in the waters of the Atlantic as it continues to move quickly in a west-northwesterly direction. However, according to forecasters weather conditions in the open ocean are impacting the storm, causing it to lose some organization since Thursday.
According to a report from a senior researcher of marine and atmospheric science at the Washington Post, Dorian was expected to have an opportunity to strengthen on Tuesday and Wednesday, but then lost steam beginning on Thursday. The accuracy of this forecast model seems to have been on target, as the storm intensified through Wednesday night, plateaued, and then began to weaken.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that as of 11:00 a.m. AST on Friday, Dorian was 1,295 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands. The storm continues to move on a path to the west-northwest at 21 mph.
A slightly faster forward speed is anticipated over the next 48 hours and the longer that the system remains in a weakened state, the further westward it will travel thanks to low level easterly trade winds.
Dorian's maximum sustained winds are currently blowing at 50 mph, with higher gusts down from 60 mph on Thursday. Tropical storm force winds are extending outward up to 60 miles.
The forecast for the storm remains mostly unchanged and some weakening is expected over the next day or so. It is still not expected to turn into a hurricane within the next five days.
Tampa Bay News reports that increased wind shear and drier air have contributed to weakening the storm.
"The question is how it's going to interact with this the next couple of days," said meteorologist Juli Marquez.
The storm is still far offshore and it's up in the air as to whether it will regain strength as it approaches land or weaken on its westerly path.
Forecasters at the NHC expect Dorian to pass close to Puerto Rico on Monday, Hispaniola on Tuesday and then move onto the Bahamas or eastern Cuba by Wednesday.
If the storm continues on the northern edge of this path then it would go on to affect southern Florida and possibly Cuba by Thursday or Friday of next week.
Long range models, however, are trending further south so Dorian may end up passing too close to the mountainous regions of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba and dissipate before it makes its way to Florida and western Cuba.