What if I was to tell you that there's a time bomb somewhere in the world that could cause up to $60 trillion in worldwide damages — that's just about the size of the entire 2012 world economy. In other words, there's a huge problem that hasn't been acknowledged.
"This is the first calculation of its kind that we know of," Chris Hope from Cambridge Judge Business School said. "And we welcome anyone who wants to take this forward and build on it so we can have a discussion - but we don't have long to discuss it! This is so big and if it happens it could happen fast; people need to wake up to the possible reality we face."
It seems that vast reservoirs of methane from the Arctic will be emitted "in one giant 'burp,'" over the next 30 years, according to University of Cambridge press release. Methane is a worse greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, and scientists calculated that the resulting effects on the climate would end up costing the world $60 trillion through rising temperatures and erratic weather behavior. The area of concern is the East Siberian Arctic shelf.
"In 2012, noting that the far north is increasing in strategic importance and citing the need for informal dialogue among world leaders, the WEF (World Economic Forum) launched its Global Agenda Council on the Arctic," reads the study detailing the findings in the journal Nature.
"This is welcome but more action is needed. The WEF should kick-start investment in rigorous economic modeling. It must ask world leaders to consider the economic time bomb beyond short-term gains from shipping and extraction."
There isn't too much we can do, however, the authors admit. In the end, preventing the release of methane might simply be impossible. Instead, the researchers aspire to inform the public and those in charge so that everybody has a clear picture of what's to come.
"Arctic science is a strategic asset for human economies, because the region drives critical effects in our biophysical, political and economic systems. Without this recognition, world leaders and economists will miss the big picture," the authors of the study proclaim.