The latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) indicates that Tropical Storm Chantal is on a track headed toward the Caribbean and is currently moving quickly between Martinique and St. Lucia. As the storm moves closer to the Caribbean, forecasts signal the possibility the storm will strengthen into a hurricane.
As of 11:00 a.m. AST Tuesday, the storm was located approximately 55 miles northwest of St. Lucia and 410 miles southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico. Chantal is moving in a west-northwesterly path near 29 mph and this trajectory is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Looking forward, Chantal will move away from the Lesser Antilles later Tuesday, continuing over the eastern Caribbean throughout the afternoon and night.
AccuWeather reports that as the storm moves into the eastern and central parts of the Caribbean, there is a possibility that the warm waters will allow the system to reach Category 1 hurricane status.
As Chantal continues on her north-northwesterly path across the Caribbean, the biggest threat will be flooding, which is expected to impact Puerto Rico and Hispaniola the hardest.
Chantal will cause tropical storm conditions in the Windward Islands on Tuesday, with similar conditions hitting the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Haiti and the Dominican Republic will be impacted later on in the week, starting on Wednesday and continuing into Thursday. Beyond that, the storm is forecast to turn on a more north to northeast path, which will take it over the Bahamas and waters near the coast of Florida.
In terms of storm watches and warnings, a hurricane watch is in effect for the Dominican Republic from Barahona to Samona. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Dominica, St. Lucia, Martinique, Guadeloupe, Puerto Rico, the entire coast of the Dominican Republic and the north coast of Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas eastward. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Vieques, Culebra, Haiti from Le Mole St. Nicholas southward to the border of the Dominican Republic, Turks & Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to 60 mph with higher gusts and some additional increase in strength possible before Chantal moves over Hispaniola. Tropical storm force winds are currently extending outward up to 90 miles to the northeast of the center of the storm.
In terms of hazards affecting land, a storm surge resulting from Chantal will raise water levels between 1 to 3 feet in the Leeward and Windward Islands and Puerto Rico, as well as the entire northern coast of Hispaniola. The storm surge will raise water levels 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the southern coast of the Dominican Republic. These surges are expected to produce dangerous waves, surf and riptide conditions.
Chantal is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the Leeward and Windward Islands and 3 to 6 inches over Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands and parts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Maximum amounts of up to 8 inches of rainfall are possible in some areas.
Rains from Chantal will bring the threat of flooding and mudslides in the affected areas, while tropical storm force winds may cause tree and minor structural damage as well as power outages.
The NHC will issues its next intermediate advisory at 2:00 p.m. AST and its next complete advisory at 5:00 p.m. AST. Stay tuned for more details about this storm.