New York City could see up to 22 percent more heat-related deaths in the coming decade, according to a study of the impact of climate trends.
The study, published in a recent issue of the journal Nature Climate Change, predicted oppressive summertime temperatures would take a progressively hard toll on people living in metropolitan areas like Manhattan in the coming decades, the Guardian has reported.
Overall, the new temperature norms under climate change would lead to a 6.2 percent rise in weather-related deaths in New York by 2020s, according to the new findings.
The numbers would not be significantly offset by milder winters, the study suggested, and deaths due to extreme temperatures would rise more dramatically in the later decades of the century.
"This is the first real study of the seasonal trade-off of climate change," Patrick Kinney, a professor of environmental health sciences at Columbia University and one of the authors of the study, was quoted saying by the Guardian.
"What our study suggests is that the heat effects of climate change dominate the winter warming benefits that might also come: climate change will cause more deaths through heat than it will prevent during winter," he said.
The study concludes that without bold action to cut greenhouse gas emissions, by 2080 heat wave deaths in New York city could rise by as much as 91 percent over 1980s levels.
The analysis was based on computer projections of future climatic shifts and their impact on deaths and provided a scaled-down version of the potential public health challenges posed by such changes.
Scientists used a set of 16 computer models to arrive at their findings.
The study appears to rule out the possibility held by some that warmer temperatures would actually benefit public health.
The study said that, even under current conditions, there are more deaths in New York City linked to extreme heat than to extreme cold.
Last year, the hottest summer since record-keeping began in the U.S., there were a series of days on which the temperature hit more than 100F in a number of cities across the country.
The week-long heat spell led to the deaths of 82 people, according to figures compiled by the Associated Press.
Aside from New York, cities including Chicago, Cincinnati, Philadelphia and St Louis have also recorded sharp rises in deaths due to heart attacks and strokes during extended periods of heat, according to a draft of the National Climate Assessment, released last year.
"Urban heat islands, combined with an aging population and increased urbanization, are projected to increase the vulnerability of urban populations to heat-related health impacts in the future," the assessment said.
Kinney said he wants to see city planners in New York and other large urban areas to step up preparations for hotter summers, which could include efforts to cool the city during the summer, encouraging tree-planting programs and establishing new temperature-mitigating building standards.