The failure of the Senate gun control bill on Wednesday should serve as a warning to supporters of immigration reform.
Support for simple gun control measures is at an all-time high, yet the Senate couldn't muster 60 votes to pass background checks for firearms sales; not even all the Democrats supported the measure.
Nationwide, the support for immigration reform isn't as high, though its popularity is still peaking. Though the new reform bill has better odds in the Senate, a final vote could play out the same way.
Gun control failed because special interest groups like the NRA wield enough political power to mount serious challenges to red state politicians who vote against their wishes. Immigration opponents used to wield the same kind of power, but their devastating loss in last year's election has seen their sway on Capitol Hill wane.
But the era of soft opposition to the immigration reform bill is over. While the bill was still being written, conservatives were content to call for delays and caution, urging the architects not to move with too much haste. Now that the bill is official, they have a concrete target for their attacks, and they will be concentrated.
More than likely, the Republican Party establishment will come out in support of the bill, so as not to doom their chances of national relevance in 2016 by alienating the entire Hispanic population.
But the support will be tepid at best, much as their support for women's rights was last year. "Think what you want, but keep it to yourself and don't make the rest of us look bad." Expect plenty of "gaffes" in the coming months as conservative Republicans speak their minds on immigrants and immigration while party leaders try to shush them.
In the meantime, they'll try to water down the bill as much as possible so whatever does pass can't change much. Republicans can't afford to blatantly oppose the immigration bill, but they can't afford to let Democrats have a win, either.
Democrats in red states will also shy away from full-throated defense on the bill. Even the measure that actually made it to the Senate floor is a compromise - the best that can be expected with a divided Congress. The Gang of Eight is bipartisan, guaranteeing at least four Republican votes for the bill. If the Democrats can hold onto their membership, they need only convince one more Republican to reach the elusive 60 votes and avoid the fate of gun control.