Spain is on the verge of history and becoming the first team to win three major tournaments in a row. However, their final obstacle in achieving this goal has already proven to be Spain's toughest obstacle in this tournament.
Spain has never defeated Italy in regulation time of a major tournament. However, there are numerous reasons to believe that the defending champions can keep the title.
Proven Winners and Champions
Upsets are prone to happening, but as Spain has shown over the last few years, they are experts at two things: passing and winning. Prior to their dominance in the 2008 Euro Cup, Spain was known as the perennial choke artist. In 2002 they lost to underdog South Korea in the World Cup Quarter Finals. In the subsequent 2004 Euro in Portugal, they failed to make it out of the group stage. In 2006, Spain won its group with three victories in the World Cup, but fell to France in the Round of 16.
Everything changed in 2008 when they took the Euro Cup title. In 2009, the lost to the US in the warm up Confederations Cup before losing their opening match to Switzerland in the 2010 World Cup. However, after that, Spain went on a run of winning six straight to their first World Championship and came into the Euro as the top ranked team according to FIFA. They have not been at the height of their powers in this tournament (and many would claim the same for their 2010) run, but there is no denying that this team simply knows how to get the job done when it counts.
Against Croatia, the outcome looked bleak and the team almost lost, but some smart changes from coach Vicente del Bosque and the creativity of the midfield, and Spain scored a late marker to take the match and the group. Against Portugal, they failed to assert their presence and looked to lose after missing their first penalty of the shootout. However, they still found a way to win.
There is no question that everyone in the Spanish locker room is confident in their ability to win the big matches when they come. This team simply does not choke.
Defense
Italy is known for their suffocating defense and their work against the Germans and Spain in the first match speaks for itself. However, Spain has been the better defensive team in this tournament.
Italy has allowed three goals in the tournament, while Spain has only allowed one. That single goal came in their first match against Italy and since then, Spain has scored eight straight goals.
Spain continuously out chances opponents and controls play against foes by gigantic margins.They have an average of 60 percent ball possession in the tournament; by far the highest percentage of any team in the tournament. With all that possession it is no surprise that foes barely ever have chances, supporting the old cliche; that the best defense is a strong offense. Through their five matches, no team has had more than six attempts on target (Italy), while no team has had more than 10 attempts at goal in a game against Spain in the tournament.
Italy has not faired quite as well and has been out chanced in several of their matches.
Spain knows that its worst game thus far was against the Italians and will look to adjust to their stingy defense by making sure that such players as Balotelli see the ball as little as possible.
Depth and Tactical Genius
As mentioned in the post "Why Spain Will Beat Portugal," Spain has wealth on the field and on the bench that Italy cannot match. Italy has a strong midfield anchored by Andrea Pirlo and with strong balance upfront from Mario Balotelli and Antonio Cassano, but Spain has weapons that Italy will be hard pressed to match.
Vicente del Bosque has experimented throughout the tournament with a number of formations and a number of players suiting different roles. When certain players have faltered, he has made switches that have almost always worked.
Against Italy, the 4-6 formation without a true striker generated one goal, but was not challenging Italy's defense all that much. Del Bosque threw in stiker Fernando Torres and Italy had trouble containing him. If not for Torres' awful play, Spain wins that game thanks to the tactical change. Against Croatia, the formation with a striker up top failed mightily. Del Bosque replaced a struggling David Silva with Cesc Fabregas and Fernando Torres with Jesus Navas and both players factored into Spain's game winning goal in the waning moments. Against Portugal Del Bosque brought Alvaro Negredo to add size up front. When Negredo proved useless, he brought in Fabregas and Navas to add more speed up front. He even took the risk of taking out midfield genius Xavi Hernandez for Pedro Martinez and the move almost made up for it. Spain woke up in extra time and had a plethora of chances to put the game away if not for some great play from Portugal's goalkeeper.
Spain has been called one dimensional, but Del Bosque has shown that they are anything but that and their versatility will cause a problem for an Italian team that lacks that depth.
Disagree? Read the counterargument for an Italian Victory HERE.
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