It's that time of year where we try to figure out which teams are going to the dance and which teams season is about to pop.
As the field has been increased to 68, the old "hard bubble" is gone. Instead, we're having to get used to seeing lists of teams that would make you pull your hair out for even being considered as contenders.
Here's a list of teams on the bubble likely to burst and those likely to stay afloat.
ACC: Viginia and Maryland both stand at (20-10) on the season, but I only like one of them to continue. Virginia has proven they can play with the big boys this season with some impressive victories. If you can ignore their bad losses, you'll actually find a pretty decent team in there. The same can't be said for Maryland. A team that needed a win over North Carolina to save from being on the wrong side of the bubble suffered a loss that just about cemented it.
Big Ten: I like Villanova more than most and think they can make a decent run in the tournament with their athleticism and ability to lock down on D. They earned the right to be in by beating No.5 Georgetown when everyone else was losing their "must-have" matchups. As for Cincinnati and Providence, I think they burst this year. The Bearcats have perhaps a slight chance to make it, but overall I don't think their resume let's them in. Which means go ahead and pencil them somewhere because that's just how soft the bubble has become.
Big Ten: Minnesota and Illinois are in, heck, so are the Iowa Hawkeyes. I like all three of them to make it a crowded conference. Computers might not be nice to some of them, but the resumes will show they can beat up on anyone and all three of them are surging which is what you need come bubble time.
Big 12: Oklahoma and Iowa State are great examples of teams needing to win and getting it done. They're in. Baylor on the other hand is a great example of a team putting themselves in positions to win and then fouling it up in some unfathomable fashion.
Pac-12: I don't like any teams out west in terms of their survivability once they make the tournament, but that doesn't matter to the bubble. This conference brings out my inner Oprah. YOU GET IN! AND YOU GET IN! AND YOU GET IN! Sorry Arizona State, you're going to be watching from home.
SEC: Perhaps the ugliest of conferences, they're a hard one to guess, but here goes. Missouri and Ole Miss are in, no question. Arkansas and Alabama are out because of some recent bad losses and just a lack of anything to persuade votes to for letting them in. Sorry Kentucky, you're out, and I don't think anyone's too sad about it.
Atlantic 10: La Salle and Temple are in, but Xavier is out even though they've had some impressive upsets lately. Still, the resume looks poor them and just doesn't justify them having a ticket to the tournament.