The Best Actress race has always been one of the most contentious categories in Oscar history as there are usually two front runners in the race. In 2012 Meryl Streep and Viola Davis split the critics and awards organizations and in 2010 Meryl Streep battled with Sandra Bullock. Other examples include the 2009 contest between Meryl Streep and Kate Winslet and the 2008 race featuring Marion Cotillard and Julie Christie. The ultimate winner was always the actress portraying a real life person or the winner of the BAFTA award. This year, three actresses have split pundits, critics' circles, and awards ceremonies.
Jessica Chastain-"Zero Dark Thirty's" Jessica Chastain received her second nomination for the Academy Award this year; she was previously nominated as Best Supporting Actress in 2011 for "The Help." Chastain was never thought of as a front runner until she won 17 critics circles including the National Board of Review. She then went on to win the Golden Globe and Critics Choice award for Best Actress. However her campaign started to fizzle out when controversy struck on the film and the Academy failed to nominate the film's director Kathryn Bigelow. Chastain lost even more momentum when she failed to win the SAG award two weeks ago. However she is still nominated for the BAFTA which has a history of deciding the race. "Zero Dark Thirty" is nominated for Best Film and Director at the British Awards and this may help her chances at winning the award.
Jennifer Lawrence-Jennifer Lawrence's nomination marked her second in the Best Actress category; she was previously nominated in 2010 for "Winter's Bone." Lawrence's performance for "Silver Linings Playbook" received buzz ever since it opened in Toronto. She was hailed as the favorite to win the race but like Chastain lost buzz when she split critics' organizations with Chastain. Nonetheless, Lawrence received 16 critics' awards. She then received the Golden Globe award and re-emerged as the front-runner when she won the SAG award. However numerous actresses such as Viola Davis (The Help), Meryl Streep (Doubt), and Julie Christie (Away from Her) all won the SAG but lost the BAFTA and then the Oscar. Lawrence's chances could likely live and die by the BAFTAs. The British Academy did not nominate "Silver Linings Playbook" for the Best Film award; the movie only received three nominations. However the Academy Awards embraced the film and gave it eight nominations including all four major acting categories; it was the first film in 31 years to complete the feat. As a result, Lawrence could become one of the few actresses to pull off an Oscar win even without a BAFTA triumph.
Emmanuelle Riva- Riva's performance for "Amour" was the big surprise of the category as many believed the French actress would not get recognized. Riva broke the record by becoming the oldest woman to get nominated in the Best Actress category. Riva is not expected to win but most pundits point to her as a potential surprise. The thespian has won seven precursor awards including the European Film Award and LA Film Critics. She was not nominated for the crucial Golden Globes or SAG awards but she was recognized by the British Academy. A win from the BAFTA could easily make her the front-runner. Additionally the Academy nominated the film for the Best Picture making "Amour" the first foreign film since "Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon" to get nominated in the category.
Quvenzhane Wallis-Wallis was also seen as a surprise nominee for "Beasts of the Southern Wild." Like Riva, she also broke a record and became the youngest actress to ever get nominated in the category. The 9-year old actress has not won any precursor awards although she has won breakthrough and young actor awards from numerous organization include the Critics Choice Awards. Wallis was not nominated for the SAG, Golden Globe, or BAFTA and seems like a long shot in this category.
Naomi Watts-This is Watts' second career Oscar nomination; in 2004 she was recognized for "21 Grams." Watts was once seen as a potential surprise winner for her role in "The Impossible." Celebrities endorsed her turn in the film but her failure to win any precursor awards including the Golden Globe, SAG, and Critics Choice awards reduced her chances. Additionally, she was snubbed by the British Academy. Watts also became the only actress in the category whose film is not nominated for the Best Picture.
Prediction: Chastain, Lawrence, and Riva will all have to wait to see what the BAFTA outcome is. However based on the Academy's nominations Lawrence may end up winning the award regardless of the BAFTA's decision.