The Screen Actors Guild Awards have always been a good indicator of who the acting awards will go to at the Oscars. However predicting the Ensemble award can be difficult. Sometimes the SAG awards go with the films that will win the Oscar or with a film they want to award the actors for. However a win at the SAG can put a film in the front running position at the Oscars. Recent best picture winners that won the ensemble award include "The King's Speech," "Slumdog Millionaire," "No Country for Old Men," and "Crash."
This year four out the five films nominated for the SAG award are also nominated for Best Picture at the Academy Awards.
Argo-"Argo" was nominated for two SAG awards including Ensemble and Supporting Actor for Alan Arkin. The film is not expected to win the supporting category but could have a chance of being rewarded for its ensemble. Argo has won 13 precursor awards including the Golden Globe and Critics' Choice. If Argo wins Best Ensemble, the films front-runner position could be reestablished after losing a nomination for Best Director at the Oscars.
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel-The nomination for "The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel" is recognition for the actors in the film. "Hotel" garnered two SAG nominations including Ensemble and Best Supporting Actress for Maggie Smith. During awards season the film garnered very little attention and was only able to get a Golden Globe Comedy nomination. However, since the film garnered no Academy Award nominations, Marigold Hotel has no chance of winning the top award at SAG.
Les Miserables- "Les Miserables" is nominated for four SAG nominations including Best Ensemble, Best Actor for Hugh Jackman, Best Supporting Actress for Anne Hathaway and Best Stunt Ensemble. The movie is expected to win the Supporting Actress award but it is unknown how well the SAG enjoyed the film. Four nominations are very telling but its failure to win numerous precursor awards and its lackluster reviews may hurt its chances. Additionally the fact that Tom Hooper failed to garner a directing nod and the film failed to garner a writing nomination at the Academy Awards weakens its chances. If "Les Miserables" wins the Best Ensemble it could make a strong case but it is unlikely to affect the race.
Lincoln-"Lincoln" garnered four nominations at the SAG Awards including Best Ensemble, Best Actor for Daniel Day-Lewis, Best Supporting Actor for Tommy Lee Jones, and Best Supporting Actress for Sally Field. Lincoln has won numerous Ensemble awards at Critics' circles and is poised as the front-runner to win the Oscar. With its four nominations, SAG can easily sway towards "Lincoln" making it the safest choice and making its case for Best Picture even stronger.
Silver Lining Playbook-"Silver Linings Playbook" is nominated for four SAG Awards including Best Ensemble, Best Actor for Bradley Cooper, Best Actress for Jennifer Lawrence, and Best Supporting Actor for Robert De Niro. The film could easily pull an upset especially after getting nominated for eight Oscars; a surprising number that pundits did not expect. Additionally it won the Best Ensemble award at the Critics' Choice. A win from SAG could put "Playbook" back in the race after losing steam.
Predictions: "Silver Linings Playbook" can easily upset as it has four nominations and has the Weinstein Company behind its back. If "Playbook" does not win Lincoln will take the award.